The reversal happened incrementally, the way infrastructure usually improves: a shader compiler rewrite here, a scheduling fix there, and suddenly the benchmark charts overlap.
Where it still trails
Day-one support for a brand-new GPU generation, and a handful of vendor-specific compute extensions. If your work depends on either, the closed stack is still the answer.
For everything else — desktop compositing, browsers, video pipelines, most games — the open driver is now the safer choice because bugs get fixed in public.
The advantage of an open driver is not speed. It is that you can read the bug.
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